The University of Rochester got an intense look from our panel. Rochester athletics photo

By Pat Coleman 
D3sports.com

The Division III basketball analytics universe has just exploded in recent years, and analysis that we used to have to do ourselves, instead, we can convene a whole group of people who study the regional rankings, the criteria, and bring their knowledge to the table. 

We've done that over the last few years, and we continued to do it Sunday night, as our mock committee was as follows: Matt Snyder helped with his indispensible strength-of-schedule work. Bob Quillman, Ryan Scott and Drew Pasteur (aka @D3bubble on Twitter) formed the rest of our committee, with Dave McHugh, on Hoopsville.

And, as usual, these picks do not influence the NCAA Tournament selection committee's picks, nor does our Top 25 poll. No national Top 25 is ever considered in an NCAA selection process.

Here are our projections.

• NCAA Selection Show broadcast at 1 p.m. ET
• Who's in automatically: 44 conference winners
• NCAA Tournament FAQs

We start by projecting the regional rankings for each of the 10 regions because that's how the process actually starts. The regional committees that have been producing those rankings do it one more time and then send them to the national tournament selection committee. That committee may make adjustments to the regional rankings, which can alter which teams are regionally ranked, which then changes some teams' records against regionally ranked opponents (one of the criteria in selecting at-large teams).

Eventually the national committee ends up with a final list of regional rankings, which they will announce after the brackets are released. The rankings include teams which have clinched automatic bids, which are set aside for the bracketing stage. Then the highest ranked team without an automatic bid within each region comes to the table for consideration as an at-large candidate. There are 10 teams up for consideration at any point, one from each region. When a team is picked, the next highest ranked team within that region comes to the proverbial table.

Our committee's job is to pick 20 at-large teams, and then Ryan Scott and I bracket them after all the teams are chosen.

We knew there were a number of obvious picks who were going to make the NCAA Tournament, no matter what, especially this year when our board starts with teams such as St. Joseph (Conn.), Johns Hopkins, John Carroll, Wheaton and St. Thomas (Texas), who all got knocked off in conference tournaments. So, rather than go through the extensive debate, we placed the following teams in the field as at-large selections: St. Joseph (Conn.), Middlebury, UW-Oshkosh, Wheaton (Ill.), Stockton, Washington U., John Carroll.

Johns Hopkins, the second-ranked team in our Region 5, went early as well, with very similar numbers to John Carroll. Williams presented even more similar numbers according to the NCAA Division III criteria, and was picked ninth by our panel.

At that point, we had exhausted the obvious ones, the teams who were on the top of the at-large list from everyone on our panel. Here's how the table looked at this point, with the 10 teams actually being considered, with listings of the three numerical categories of D-III winning percentage, D-III strength of schedule, record against regionally ranked opponents:

Region 1: Tufts, .760, .574, 6-4
Region 2: WPI, .846, .530, 3-4
Region 3: Rochester, .640, .629, 10-6
Region 4: Montclair State, .815, .535, 5-5
Region 5: Muhlenberg, .667, .551, 2-5
Region 6: Mary Washington, .704, .578, 3-6
Region 7: Wooster, .778, 553, 3-4
Region 8: Elmhurst, .643, .552, 5-7
Region 9: UW-La Crosse, .731, .556, 5-5
Region 10: St. Thomas (Texas), .875, 560, 3-1

When Mary Washington was selected with the 11th pick, Hampden-Sydney reached the board from Region 6, and was selected basically immediately, with the help of the Tigers' win against Christopher Newport.  

After Hampden-Sydney is selected, Emory comes to the board from Region 6. At this point, the committee decides it can't ignore St. Thomas' .875 winning percentage and .560 SOS any longer -- the thing that had been holding the Celts back was just three wins, and four games against regionally ranked opponents. Emory (.680, .615, 6-7) goes in next, followed by Mary Hardin-Baylor (.808, .545, 5-2). Montclair State was taken at the 16 spot and NYU, 18-7 overall, followed as the third at-large team from the UAA.

The committee also favored looking deeper into the regionally ranked opponents (RRO) to determine who exactly those wins came against. Not all regionally ranked opponents are the same! Pomona-Pitzer, who had a 4-2 mark against RRO, including a win against Wash U, ranked No. 3 in our Region 8 ranking, was taken next.

At pick 19, there was a lengthy, extensive discussion of Rochester.

Lengthy.

Extensive.

If you want to watch it, start at the 5 hour, 4 minute mark of the Selection Sunday special on Hoopsville. It ended, no kidding, 26 minutes later, when the four committee members not named Dave McHugh all agreed that it was time to take Rochester. The U of R is 16-9, which is difficult to think about as an at-large pick, but Rochester also had an incredible .629 SOS, and 10 wins against RRO. Also in Rochester's favor: a head-to-head win on the road at Wooster on Dec. 10, a team which is still currently on the board at this point.

Somewhat less lengthy was the discussion of the 20th pick, which came down to three teams: Utica, Claremont-Mudd-Scripps, and UW-La Crosse, then eventually a vote between CMS and UWL, which UWL won by a vote of 3-2.

And that's how difficult this process is.

Our projected 20 at-large bids go to St. Joseph (Conn.), Middlebury, UW-Oshkosh, Wheaton (Ill.), Stockton, Washington U., John Carroll, Johns Hopkins, Williams, Tufts, Mary Washington, Hampden-Sydney, St. Thomas (Texas), Emory, Mary Hardin-Baylor, Montclair State, New York University, Pomona-Pitzer, Rochester and UW-La Crosse.

Here's who was left on the board when Utica was selected 20th.

The large number of upsets made it harder to get in as an at-large team this season. Wooster's resume would have gotten selected to the 2022 bracket, and Guilford's likely would have as well. Claremont-Mudd-Scripps might have gotten in if this were 2022. But it's not last year.

Here's how we would pair them up:

Each pod is set up the same, with teams "seeded" 1-4, and the host team playing the 4 in the first round, with one exception noted.

Top left quadrant

Randolph-Macon hosts Mitchell, while NYU plays N.C. Wesleyan
John Carroll hosts Marymount, while Oswego plays East Texas Baptist (flight)
St. Joseph (Conn.) hosts Arcadia, while Rochester plays St. Lawrence
Johns Hopkins hosts Worcester State, while Keene State plays Lancaster Bible

Bottom left quadrant

UW-Oshkosh hosts Coe, while Wabash plays Bethany Lutheran
Washington U. hosts Anderson, while UW-Whitewater plays Sewanee
Wheaton (Ill.) hosts Fontbonne, while UW-La Crosse plays Hope
St. Thomas (Texas) hosts Whitworth, while Mary Hardin-Baylor plays Schreiner

Top right quadrant

Case Western Reserve hosts Chatham, while Mary Washington plays Scranton
Stockton hosts La Roche, while Williams plays Nichols
Swarthmore hosts Baruch, while Tufts plays Albertus Magnus
North Park hosts Illinois College, while Carleton plays St. Norbert

Bottom right quadrant

Christopher Newport (flight) plays Cal Lutheran, while Pomona-Pitzer hosts Emory (flight) *
Middlebury hosts Farmingdale State, while Montclair State plays Widener
Rowan hosts Wilson, while Hamilton plays Babson
Mount Union hosts SUNY Delhi, while Hampden-Sydney plays St. John Fisher

* CNU is the top seed in this pod but playing on the road because the CNU women are hosting in the first weekend.

Keep an eye on D3hoops.com for coverage of the bracket reveal on Monday, and post your questions in the comments section below.